Wednesday 15 June 2011

Risk management

You can't win a gliding competition on the first day, but you can very easily lose it on the first day.

Today was a day not to lose, rather than a day to win. The weather forecast was for showers in the competition area building in the afternoon and with showers, anything can happen. You might be lucky and get the right side of the shower and romp home or, more likely, you'll end up on the sinking side of the shower and go down like a lead balloon. In fact, that's what happened to half the Standard class today. Half got back very quickly, the other half landed out by the last turn point.

We decide to start as soon as we see a good weather line ahead. Cloudbase is about 3000-3500 feet but we can see the showers to the north already. I am last on the grid but we finally start after i get away from 1200 feet. The first leg to Koping is a struggle, then the second leg into 18kts wind seems very slow indeed. Then the third leg and we are faced with a long lines of showers and big decision, go right round the showers or try and squeeze between them. We inch our way closer then it looks like the gap between the showers is working well. We go for it, we get soaked but the lift is still good. Finally, the last turnpoint and through another shower i get fantastic lift in a straight line that puts me way above glide home. I put the stick forward and fly as fast as i dare in the rough air to the finish ring.

I finish 7th for the day. The french have taken a massive gamble, starting very late, and it worked out for one of them, coming back just in the nick of time before the heaven open over the airfield.

I am pleased with the day, days like today are all about playing the numbers and managing the risk. The day points are low, 396 for the winner (out of 1000, days get devalued because of short task), so not many points to win but many to lose if you landout.

Tomorrow looks like a flyable day.

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